A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
